Working Papers
The Impact of Asymmetric Information about Collateral Values in Mortgage Lending
  View Abstract     VoxEU
I empirically analyze credit market outcomes when competing lenders are differentially informed about the expected return from making a loan. I study the residential mortgage market where property developers often cooperate with vertically integrated mortgage lenders to offer financing to buyers of new homes. I show that these integrated lenders have superior information about the construction quality of individual homes and exploit this information to lend against higher-quality collateral that outperforms by an average of 40 basis points annually. To compensate for this adverse selection, non-integrated lenders charge higher interest rates when competing against a better-informed integrated lender.
Government Intervention in the Housing Market – Who Wins, Who Loses?
  Coauthor: Max Floetotto  
  View Abstract
We study the effects of government intervention in the housing market on prices, quantities and welfare in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. We consider (i) the introduction of temporary home purchase tax credits and (ii) a removal of the asymmetric tax treatment of owner-occupied and rental housing. Home buyer tax credits temporarily raise house prices and transaction volumes, but have negative welfare effects. Removing the asymmetric tax treatment of owner-occupied and rental housing would generate welfare gains for a majority of agents in a comparison of stationary equilibria. Welfare impacts are more varied, though still positive, along the transition between steady states.
The Power of the Church - The Role of Roman Catholic Teaching in the Transmission of HIV
  Coauthor: Arthur van Benthem  
  View Abstract
We use the appointment of a Kenyan Roman Catholic archbishop as a natural experiment to analyze the impact of church authorities' teaching on sexual behavior. Using a triple-difference approach, we find that following the archbishop's counter-doctrinal assertion that condom use within a marriage can be acceptable to reduce HIV infections, Catholic married couples within the archdiocese who had access to condoms were 7.0 percentage points more likely to use condoms than unmarried Catholics in the diocese, non-Catholics within the diocese, or Catholics in other dioceses. These results are quantitatively large and robust to a number of econometric specifications. The evidence for whether advocating condom use leads to an increase in infidelity or a decrease in respect for women is not conclusive. Our results suggest an important role for the Catholic church in the fight against HIV. This is especially relevant in light of Pope Benedict XVI's recent reconciliatory statement about condom use.
Foreclosure and Bankruptcy - Policy Conclusions from the Current Crisis
  Coauthor: Theresa Kuchler 
  View Abstract
The recent episode of rising consumer bankruptcies and increasing foreclosure rates has sparked a lively debate about how to best tackle the crisis in the U.S. housing market. We contribute to this debate by providing an explicit model of a household’s joint decision to declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy and to enter into foreclosure. This model demonstrates how bankruptcy exemption limits and mortgage regulation interact to influence consumer bankruptcy and foreclosure rates. We use state-level data to show that our model predictions are empirically plausible. We suggest that policy proposals need to focus on reducing both foreclosures and bankruptcies jointly. In particular, we argue that in the short-run a switch from non-recourse mortgages to recourse mortgages may have little effect on the number of foreclosures, but could dramatically increase the number of bankruptcies.
Work in Progress
Segmented Housing Search
  Coauthors: Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider  
Knowing your Neighborhood: Asymmetric Information and Housing
  Coauthors: Pablo Kurlat  
Asymmetric Information in Used Vehicle Markets
  Coauthors: Arthur van Benthem  
Published or Forthcoming Papers
Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation: Theory and Evidence
  Forthcoming at Review of Economics and Statistics
  Coauthor: Arthur van Benthem
  View Abstract     VoxEU
We use fiscal data on 2,468 oil extraction agreements in 38 countries to study tax contracts between resource-rich countries and independent oil companies. We analyze why expropriations occur and what determines the degree of oil price exposure of host countries. With asymmetric information about a country's expropriation cost even optimal contracts feature expropriations. Near-linearity in the oil price of real-world hydrocarbon contracts also helps to explain expropriations. We show theoretically and verify empirically that oil price insurance provided by tax contracts is increasing in a country's cost of expropriation, and decreasing in its production expertise. The timing of actual expropriations is consistent with our model.
Estimated Impact of the Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program
  International Journal of Central Banking, 8(2), June 2012
  Coauthor: John B. Taylor
  View Abstract     VoxEU
The largest credit or liquidity program created by the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis was the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program. In this paper, we examine the quantitative impact of this program on mortgage interest rate spreads. This is more difficult than frequently perceived because of simultaneous changes in prepayment risk and default risk. Our empirical results attribute a sizeable portion of the decline in mortgage rates to such risks and a relatively small and uncertain portion to the program. For specifications where the existence or announcement of the program appears to have lowered spreads, we find no separate effect of the stock of MBS purchased by the Fed.