Class 1 (Introduction to Decision Making)

The week will be very fast-paced. You will have to absorb a great deal of material very quickly. As advance preparation for the material that we will cover during this week, I highly recommend that you familiarize yourself with as much of the reading material as possible. In particular, you should read Winning Decisions by Russo and Schoemaker and Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman (although only parts of the books are required). If you have time, it is certainly worthwhile (i.e., highly recommended!) to read in advance as much of the course package as you can, starting from the beginning of the package. A section of supplemental reading (starting with Bayes Rule Primer) is also included and need not be read until after the completion of the course.

Below, you will find preparation questions for Class 1. Please read and prepare the assignment before you arrive in London. Note that Part E consists of a group assignment. You will spend part of Sunday answering a few questions about the case with your group.

PART A

Read:     Syllabus   [Note: This is in your course package]. Read the syllabus carefully.  I will answer any questions you have in class.

PART B

Please complete the computer surveys at:

http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/george.wu/surveys/xp0.html

In the event that this link does not work, please try:

https://survey.chicagobooth.edu/ViewsFlash/servlet/viewsflash?cmd=showform&pollid=Class%200

The survey is a general survey to help to get me to know you. You should complete the survey by Sunday, July 26, 9:00 am. The questions are found below for your convenience.

- Indicate last two employers and position

- Education (including degrees, concentrations, and school)

- Reflect of the major decisions you have made in the past. What are the three major difficulties you have encountered in your past decision making?

- What three things would you most like to improve about your decision making?

- Tell me one or two interesting things about yourself that will help me to get to know you.

- Compared to the other students in this class, how do you rate in ability to... (Choose one [90+ percentile is best])

1. Get along with people?
2. make decisions?
3. negotiate?
4. work within a group?

PART C

Read:     Anna Muoio (1998), “Decisions, Decisions - Unit of One”, Fast Company 18

Preparation Question (not to be handed in):

1. Some successful (and famous) people offer some advice on decision making.  Which advice is good?  Why?  How would we know?

2. What makes for a good decision? Provide three tests.

3. Why, in your mind, are decisions difficult? Give three reasons.

PART D

Read:    George Wu (1994). "Decision Analysis" (HBS case 9-894-004). Available in Chalk.

This reading serves as an introduction to "decision analysis", a formal approach to decision making. You may want to use some of this reading to help you with your analysis of the John Brown case (see below).

PART E

Read:    John Brown (A) (HBS Case 9-182-127)
            John Brown (B) (HBS Case 9-182-129)

Note:    The cases are found in Chalk.

Prep Note (Group Assignment):

The assignment is online. Please complete the survey here. Please submit one per group. The survey should be submitted by 10:00 am on Sunday.

http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/george.wu/surveys/xp1.html

In the event that this link does not work, try

https://survey.chicagobooth.edu/ViewsFlash/servlet/viewsflash?cmd=showform&pollid=Class%201

The questions are found below for your convenience.

Question 1. What should John Brown do? (1) elect surgery, or (2) not elect surgery.

Question 2. Rate the strength of your decision on a 1 ("strongly support surgery") to 7 ("strongly support no surgery") scale.

Question 3. Please give a few reasons for your choice.

Question 4. Please rate John Brown's decision making process on a 1 ("very ineffective") to 9 ("very effective") scale.

Question 5. Provide a brief answer justifying your rating of John's process.

Question 6. Please rate John Brown's wife's decision making process on a 1 ("very ineffective") to 9 ("very effective") scale.

Question 7 . Provide a brief answer justifying your rating of John's wife's process.

Question 8. Suppose you have three hours to gather more information for John Brown. What would you do? Please rank your "to do" list according to priorities (1=most important, etc.)

- 1 (most important to do)
- 2 (2nd most important to do)
- 3 (3rd most important to do)

Question 9. Suppose that John elects to have surgery. Please indicate your best guess as to the probability (0 to 1) of the following four outcomes.

- surgical death
- paralysis
- speech impediment
- successful operation (no complications)

Other Preparation Questions (not to be handed in):

1. Perform an analysis of John’s problem using the material contained in John Brown (A) and (B).  The case gives all the information known to John about the possible consequences and their likelihood.  According to your analysis, should John have the surgery?

2. What other information would you like to have prior to making the decision?  How would you obtain that information?

3. Repeat the analysis based on your own attitudes.

4. Consider the decision-making process that led to John’s surgery.  The three principals — John, his wife, and the surgeon — influenced the course of the decision.  Do they share the same incentives?  How “should” a decision like this get made?

5. What are the challenges to making a thoughtful medical decision in a real-time situation?